The U.S. enrollment cliff presents challenges, but also opportunities. By expanding international student recruitment and strengthening study abroad programs, universities can counter declining domestic enrollments while fostering global engagement. Discover how US institutions can turn demographic shifts into a strategy for long-term sustainability.
It’s no secret that the world of higher education is drastically changing worldwide and for several reasons. One of those reasons is the enrollment cliff. For those unfamiliar with the term, the ‘enrollment cliff’ refers to a phenomenon that centers on steeply declining college enrollment in the United States. This phenomena will become particularly apparent from 2025 onwards.
The enrollment cliff is occurring due to fewer high school graduates in recent years. This trend dates back to declining birth rates during the Great Recession of 2007 – 2009 in the U.S. Birth rates didn’t bounce back after and have been steadily decreasing. Subsequently, this has led to fewer high school graduates and hence fewer students enrolling at US universities and colleges.
Another corresponding reason is the COVID-19 pandemic that began in 2019 and spread globally in 2020. As a result, the switch from in-person to online learning has led to an estimated 1.1 million high-school dropouts in the U.S.
Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic caused many prospective higher education students to defer their studies. Others canceled their enrollment altogether. Prospective students were concerned about the quality of online courses compared to in-class courses. Add to that the high cost of education, wanting to remain closer to home, and lower-income students not having the resources needed for remote learning, such as access to stable wifi.
To top it off, there has been a significant shift in the way Americans view and value a higher education degree. There are rising concerns about the steep cost of higher education as well as the financial burden of student loans and debt.
According to studies by the Pew Research Center, only one in four U.S. adults would agree that a four-year college degree is very important. They see it as less essential for securing a well-paying job in the current workforce. Many Americans also feel that a higher education degree is less relevant than it was 20 years ago. This indicates a significant shift in the cultural and social perspectives surrounding higher education in recent years.
Additionally, despite recent efforts from schools, a significant gap remains between what schools are teaching and what employers are looking for. There is ongoing debate about whether education or experience is more important in career advancement. Some may argue that in the current job market, employers highly value skills and experience over traditional degrees. Young professionals are pursuing alternative education growth, such as micro-credentials or online courses. Or they are skipping higher education entirely in favor of work experience to boost their CVs.
In response, there is a renewed effort from schools to offer internships, traineeships, and real-world projects that offer experiential learning. Schools are also providing more networking opportunities with industry leaders and corporate partnerships to create bridges between academia and industry.
This is all an effort to address and reduce this ‘skills gap’. Schools are also integrating industry trends into their curricula, with greater emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI), technology, sustainability, and soft skills training.
While it may seem that this only affects the higher education sector, the ripple effects of the enrollment cliff will be felt throughout the American economy.
Higher education is a significant sector of the American economy. While top universities and colleges will most likely be able to stay afloat, smaller and less well-known schools will be struggling. Already, the US saw a 15% decrease in college and university enrollment between 2010 and 2021, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.
This will be a challenge, as tuition fees make up most of the money that keeps higher education institutions up and running. Some schools have already closed down due to a lack of funds. On average, the closing of one higher education institution translates into the loss of 265 jobs. Particularly smaller towns will feel this ripple effect throughout their local area.
Additionally, with fewer college and university graduates, there will be future workforce shortages. While many jobs do not require a higher education degree, according to Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce, by 2031, 41% of jobs will require college-level education and 31% will require a minimum of a college or an associate’s degree. Higher education training is critical in sectors such as healthcare and education, among others.
The effects and long-term impact of the enrollment cliff are becoming starkly apparent. Now the question is, how are higher education institutions going to address the enrollment cliff challenge? Let’s take a closer look at how international student enrollment and widening of recruitment strategies might be potential ways of tackling the inevitable enrollment cliff.
Despite recent shifts, it can’t be denied that a higher education degree, such as a master’s degree or an MBA, can open doors to new career opportunities. A higher education degree can also assist a career change, increase salary, offer a high return on investment (ROI), and lower the chance of unemployment.
It’s not all bad. While many factors are causing demographic shifts in education in the U.S. and student recruitment challenges, there is a silver lining. The enrollment cliff presents both a challenge and an opportunity. In particular, the growing importance of international students and expanding recruitment efforts should not be overlooked.
While the enrollment cliff might seem ominous, higher education institutions can re-examine “business as usual” and make important changes.
There are several tactics they could employ, such as bolstering their recruitment efforts toward new high school seniors, offering more competitive tuition rates to attract more students, targeting less traditional audiences like adult learners, and improving their student support services to ensure better career outcomes and student retention.
It will be key for schools to address the skills gap, and align themselves more closely with market trends and employer demands. They should also renew efforts for student retention and student success. Tackling both recruitment and retention will be critical.
Additionally, schools need to start branching out their recruitment efforts. True, there is a dip in the typical 18-year-old prospective student pool. Because of this, schools are going to need to get creative with offering programs to adult learners. For example, those who might want to go back to get a degree that they didn’t complete. Or older professionals who want to gain a degree to advance their career, improve their salary, make a career pivot, or pursue a new passion. Veterans, parents, or caregivers who want to study part-time could also fall into this category. Adult learners make up 40% of total revenue in higher education.
Schools also need to adapt their curricula to match industry trends and embrace more flexible learning formats. Shorter, more flexible, and more affordable online courses are being offered by Google, Coursera, LinkedIn, and other online platforms. Hybrid and online learning, as well as part-time learning models, are gaining popularity. Ultimately, prospective learners are looking for relevance, affordability, and flexibility. It may be time for higher education to also embrace more non-traditional education methods.
And of course, tapping into the international student pool will be crucial.
Historically, the U.S. has been a hotspot attracting international talent across the globe. Researchers, academics, and students alike have flocked to the U.S. to receive high-quality education, research, and funding opportunities.
In the coming years, international students will be a key demographic for universities and colleges to tap into. By attracting international students, schools ensure a steady revenue stream. This also bolsters the American economy with global talent. International students made up 5.6% of students enrolled in American higher education in 2023-2024. While this is not a huge amount, it is still a significant portion of the student population. Interestingly, other countries, such as Australia, Canada, and the UK had far higher numbers of international students.
International students bring fresh insights, new skills, and diverse cultural perspectives to the American educational system. International undergraduate students are also potential candidates for graduate studies, with many also wanting to find work in the U.S. after graduation, adding to the labor market.
However, this is easier said than done. Schools need to actively adapt their marketing, recruitment, and administration processes. This is particularly the case for schools that are not globally known. Additionally, social and political factors, such as Trump’s recent 2024 re-election, may impact international students’ desire to study in the U.S. The U.S. faces increasing competition as a top study destination from other countries such as Spain, or other European countries.
As countries like the U.S., Canada, and Australia tighten their student visa policies – many international students are opting to study in countries with more welcoming policies and appealing study experiences. In fact, during Donald Trump’s previous presidency, there was a 12% decrease in international students in the U.S. compared to other countries.
By comparison, a recent report by the British Council indicates that Donald Trump’s re-election is expected to boost UK universities, as fewer international students choose to study in the US. During Trump’s first term, the US saw a decline of 50,000 international students between 2017 and 2021. In contrast, the UK has experienced a 4.7% increase in international undergraduate applications for early-deadline courses in 2025, reversing previous declines.
However, there may still be hope for American schools to attract international students if they can reassure their concerns and find ways to accommodate their needs to find a win-win situation.
Ultimately, a lot of factors are at play, from shifting cultural perspectives to political factors to financial costs. Yet one thing is certain, American colleges and universities are going to have to make changes, and fast. To stay ahead of the curve and outlive the enrollment cliff, schools will need to adapt.
By attracting more international students and expanding their recruitment efforts to other potential untapped demographics, schools can improve their chances. However, this will require addressing their marketing, admissions, and recruitment strategies. They must adapt to industry trends, engage in flexible learning models, and address concerns about education costs. In the U.S. and abroad, the future of higher education is rapidly changing; let’s hope these institutions can keep up.
Curious to learn more about international student recruitment trends, admissions, and more? Check our study destinations page or our admissions page for further insights.
